Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended (outlooks out to 14 days) and long range (monthly and seasonal outlooks) temperature and precipitation outlooks exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). Due to the scarcity of long range outlooks (six per month), scores are smoothed over a three year period. To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended range temperature and precipitation outlooks (outlooks out to 14 days) exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Proposed new indicator for FY 2022. Measure is under development.

Cumulative number of R2X projects that include social science research and methods to address forecaster and end user needs to prepare for and respond to/ minimize societal impact for extreme weather events.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States.

Lead Time (LT) for a Tornado Warning is the difference between the time the warning was issued and the time the tornado occurred (based on certified reports) in minutes, assuming the tornado tracked within the bounds of the warned area. Lead Times for all tornado occurrences within the U.S. are averaged to get this statistic for a given fiscal year. This average includes all warned events with zero lead times and all unwarned events.

Lead Time is calculated down to the minute for individual Tornado Warnings and tornadic events. Although the timing of the warning transmission is recorded to the nearest second, typically there is only an estimate to the nearest minute of when a tornado touches down. Additionally, even though we can compute the average tornado warning lead time to a precision of 30 second increments or less, the reporting of this value implies greater accuracy in the data based on scientific and logistical restrictions on tornado reporting and surveying. Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

The Arctic is a vast, remote region that is critical to the United States economy, weather and sea ice forecasting, our understanding of ecosystem health (including marine mammals and fisheries), and our understanding of climate change. Due to the presence of low temperatures, harsh sea conditions, limited telecommunications infrastructure, and sea ice, maintaining a network of sea ice buoys, Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observers, and Bering & Chukchi moorings is difficult, necessitating constant deployment of a combination of expendable technologies and retrieval and redeployment of a large network of moorings in the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

NOAA is consolidating activities for the NAVSTA Newport, RI location. Currently NOAA has two ships homeported at NAVSTA, the Henry B. Bigelow and Okeanos Explorer. In order to remain in compliance with the CENOTE Act, NOAA is required to co-locate with the Navy whenever possible to increase technological sharing capabilities. This consolidation aligns with NOAA's regional facilities plans. The OMAO consolidation has milestones to complete design (FY22), and then FY23 issuance of an RFP and award of the contract.

Temperature outlooks are used by sectors of the U.S. economy, such as energy, agriculture, transportation, etc. as one factor in resource decision making. Temperature outlooks are reported as the probability of temperature being above normal or below normal or, where no definite guidance can be provided, equal chances. This is the cumulative skill calculated for regions where predictions are made.

Americans live in the most severe weather-prone country on Earth. StormReady Communities support a Weather-Ready Nation by preparing for the occurrence of high impact environmental events. On an annual basis NWS targets 100 new StormReady Communities pending funding availability.

StormReady supports NWS’ disaster risk reduction strategy and is offered to provide guidance and incentive to officials who want to improve their hazardous weather and flood operations. A long-term goal for the program is to make every county or county-equivalent in the United States StormReady. The 2010 U.S. Census identifies 3,234 county or county-equivalents in the United States. We are 34 percent of the way there with 1,092 county or county-equivalents currently recognized as StormReady. A StormReady Community is defined as a local government* entity or facility** that has the authority and ability to adopt the StormReady recognition guidelines for the residents and visitors within its jurisdiction.

*The term “local government” means –
(A) A county, parish, borough, municipality, city, town, township, local public authority, school district, special district, intrastate district, council of governments (regardless of whether the council of governments is incorporated as a nonprofit corporation under State law), regional or interstate government entity, or agency or instrumentality of a local government;
(B) An Indian tribe or authorized tribal organization, or Alaska Native village or organization; and
a rural community, unincorporated town or village, or other public entity, which has the ability to achieve StormReady recognition.
**The term “facility” for a StormReady community exclusively means - universities, military installations, state/national parks, power plants/utilities, transportation centers (e.g., airports), theme parks/entertainment complex, and large event venues (e.g. stadiums).

A winter storm warning provides NOAA customers and partners advanced notice of a hazardous winter weather event that endangers life or property or provides an impediment to commerce. Winter storm warnings are issued for winter weather phenomena like blizzards, ice storms, heavy sleet, and heavy snow. This performance indicator measures the accuracy of winter storm events. Improving the accuracy and advance warnings of winter storms enables the public to take the necessary steps to prepare for disruptive winter weather conditions.