Provides field, lab, and model studies to advance our understanding of atmospheric processes related to climate intervention that increases our instrumentation capabilities to conduct measurements of stratospheric gases and aerosols, improves our modeling and forecasting capabilities for stratospheric chemistry and dynamics, establishes a baseline state of stratospheric composition and transport for evaluating the current performance of atmospheric models, and as point of reference for any future changes, and improves our understanding of marine cloud properties and associated cloud-aerosol interactions in order

The public, private sectors, emergency managers, and government institutions at all levels in this country and abroad use NOAA tropical cyclone forecasts to make decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This goal measures the difference between the projected and actual location of the center of tropical cyclones in nautical miles (nm) for the Atlantic Basin, averaged over all the 48-hour forecasts occurring during the calendar year.

* Annual Hurricane Season begins June 1 and ends November 30. The final values are produced after a verification and validation period.

Because tropical cyclones are relatively rare events, this measure can show significant annual volatility. Projecting the long-term trend, and basing out-year goals on that trend, is preferred over making large upward or downward changes to the targets each year.

Proposed new indicator for FY 2022. Measure is under development.

This measures the accuracy of wind speed forecasts, which are important for marine commerce. Accuracy is defined in terms of error. Legacy statistics are available from FY 1994 through FY 2012. New marine verification program began FY 2013. Beginning in FY 2013, Wind and Wave verification extended out to 5 and 7 days respectively, while the legacy program was limited to verifying Day 1 with errors less than 5 knots are defined as accurate. Since FY 2014, a higher threshold of forecast errors has been used to define correct forecasts whenever higher wind speeds have occurred. Hence, wind speed forecasts with errors less than (7 knots, 10 knots, 15 knots) are accurate forecasts when the observed wind speed equals or exceeds (20 knots, 34 knots, 48 knots) respectively. This measure uses complex skill scores to analyze individual wind speed components.

Legacy statistics are available from FY 1994 through FY 2012. New marine verification program began FY 2013. Beginning in FY 2013, Wind and Wave verification extended out to 5 and 7 days respectively, while the legacy program was limited to verifying Day 1 with errors less than 5 knots are defined as accurate.

Since FY 2014, a higher threshold of forecast errors has been used to define correct forecasts whenever higher wind speeds have occurred. Hence, wind speed forecasts with errors less than (7 knots, 10 knots, 15 knots) are accurate forecasts when the observed wind speed equals or exceeds (20 knots, 34 knots, 48 knots) respectively.

This measure uses complex skill scores to analyze individual wind speed components.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended (outlooks out to 14 days) and long range (monthly and seasonal outlooks) temperature and precipitation outlooks exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). Due to the scarcity of long range outlooks (six per month), scores are smoothed over a three year period. To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States. The false alarm ratio (FAR) is the percentage of times a tornado warning was issued, but no tornado occurrence was verified. Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

*Please also note that a FAR is the number of false alarms per the total number of warnings. If an FAR actual is higher than the target, then the target has not been met. If the actual is the same number or less, then it has been met or exceeded.

The annual number of peer reviewed publications is an indicator of productivity and relevance and is tracked using online resources. Peer review is one of the important procedures used to ensure that the quality of published information meets the standards of the scientific and technical community.
* FY 2019 is the first year that we are reporting on both NOAA-authored publications (previously the only type of publication measured) and NOAA-funded publications.

Seasonal outlooks are reported as the probability of temperature being above normal, near normal, below normal or, where no definite seasonal guidance can be provided, equal chances. The seasonal outlooks are the cumulative skill calculated for regions where predictions are made. These forecasts are verified using a 48 month running mean of Heidke Skill score computed for seasonal outlooks for each 3-month seasonal mean (e.g., January-February-March mean; February-March-April mean; March-April-May mean; and so on). The previous dataset used to verify the CPC seasonal temperature outlook has developed a cold bias across a large portion of the western United States during the past 5-10 years. CPC has developed a new dataset which consists of Synoptic and Metar stations only, which is consistent throughout the historical and real time periods. This change will not impact the measure itself, nor how it is reported, but will remove biases identified in the old verification dataset, resulting in a more accurate performance indicator.

Ensures that NOAA provides real time (or near real time) availability of critical satellite data and products without gaps to users (NWS and other NOAA line offices, US military and operational partners). On time data and imagery provided increases timeliness and accuracy of public warnings and forecasts of climate and weather events.

Proposed new indicator for FY 2022. Measure is under development.