This indicator demonstrates that NIST consistently produces useful and relevant scientific and technical publications and is outcome-oriented. The "relative citation impact" indicator is the ratio of the average number of citations per publication (citation rata) for all NIST publications in a year to the average expected citation rate for similar publications in a large group of peer institutions in the world. Publications typically lag by a minimum of two years due to the time needed for research, writing, journal peer review, and publication processes. The average for U.S. institutions is about 1.3.

Improve the accuracy and specificity of extreme rainfall forecasts as measured by the Threat Score of the 2” threshold, made 3 days in advance. Given this score is sensitive to the type of rainfall events experienced, and varies by year, we are adopting a 3 year running average. For FY22 and FY23, we are targeting roughly a 25% overlap between the forecast and observed area (0.14). For comparison, a Threat Score of 0 represents no overlap between forecast & observed location and a Threat Score of 1 represents complete overlap between forecast & observed location. The formula for calculating the Threat Score is = Overlap / (Forecast + Observed - Overlap).

The Arctic is a vast, remote region that is critical to the United States economy, weather and sea ice forecasting, our understanding of ecosystem health (including marine mammals and fisheries), and our understanding of climate change. Due to the presence of low temperatures, harsh sea conditions, limited telecommunications infrastructure, and sea ice, maintaining a network of sea ice buoys, Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observers, and Bering & Chukchi moorings is difficult, necessitating constant deployment of a combination of expendable technologies and retrieval and redeployment of a large network of moorings in the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States.

Accuracy or probability of detection (POD) is the percentage of time a tornado actually occurred in an area that was covered by a tornado warning. The difference between the accuracy percentage figure and 100% represents the percentage of events occurring without warning.

Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

The measure is a proxy for the useful forecast lead time of the GFS beyond the current forecasts skill and is computed as a three-year moving average over the range of forecast days into the future. It is defined as the day (including fractional day) that the value drops below 0.6 in the deterministic GFS forecast. Dropping below 0.6 indicates the point at which a forecast loses useful skill. Extending lead time in prediction of future weather events allows people to make informed choices and enables protection of life, property, and enhancement of the National economy. Target is measured in days.

The Argo program is responsible for providing real-time data for the upper 2000m of ocean heat content globally and for important regions like the Tropical Pacific for detection of El Nino.

Reducing bias in OAR’s Earth System Model is an indicator of the improved skill of precipitation simulation. Bias is defined as the long-term mean (or average over time) difference between a simulated (model generated) value and the observed value. This performance measure will track the reduction in bias (e.g., percent reduction of the current FY21 bias) in U.S. seasonal precipitation simulations in OAR Earth System models based on a percentage of bias in past Earth System models.

The public, private sectors, emergency managers, and government institutions at all levels in this country and abroad use NOAA tropical cyclone forecasts to make decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This goal measures the difference between the projected and actual location of the center of tropical cyclones in nautical miles (nm) for the Atlantic Basin, averaged over all the 48-hour forecasts occurring during the calendar year.

* Annual Hurricane Season begins June 1 and ends November 30. The final values are produced after a verification and validation period.

Because tropical cyclones are relatively rare events, this measure can show significant annual volatility. Projecting the long-term trend, and basing out-year goals on that trend, is preferred over making large upward or downward changes to the targets each year.