This measures the accuracy of wind speed forecasts, which are important for marine commerce. Accuracy is defined in terms of error. Legacy statistics are available from FY 1994 through FY 2012. New marine verification program began FY 2013. Beginning in FY 2013, Wind and Wave verification extended out to 5 and 7 days respectively, while the legacy program was limited to verifying Day 1 with errors less than 5 knots are defined as accurate. Since FY 2014, a higher threshold of forecast errors has been used to define correct forecasts whenever higher wind speeds have occurred. Hence, wind speed forecasts with errors less than (7 knots, 10 knots, 15 knots) are accurate forecasts when the observed wind speed equals or exceeds (20 knots, 34 knots, 48 knots) respectively. This measure uses complex skill scores to analyze individual wind speed components.

Legacy statistics are available from FY 1994 through FY 2012. New marine verification program began FY 2013. Beginning in FY 2013, Wind and Wave verification extended out to 5 and 7 days respectively, while the legacy program was limited to verifying Day 1 with errors less than 5 knots are defined as accurate.

Since FY 2014, a higher threshold of forecast errors has been used to define correct forecasts whenever higher wind speeds have occurred. Hence, wind speed forecasts with errors less than (7 knots, 10 knots, 15 knots) are accurate forecasts when the observed wind speed equals or exceeds (20 knots, 34 knots, 48 knots) respectively.

This measure uses complex skill scores to analyze individual wind speed components.

Each site within the National Marine Sanctuary System conducts education through formal education, informal education, and outreach for education. Programming includes hands-on activities as well as distance learning. K-12 student participation is tracked in both formal and informal education programs by counting the number of students participating in these programs. Data is collected yearly from each site and headquarters and is summarized system wide. Using these methods we can track the number of K-12 students engaged in formal or informal education and stewardship programs.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended range temperature and precipitation outlooks (outlooks out to 14 days) exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

The public, private sectors, emergency managers, and government institutions at all levels in this country and abroad use NOAA tropical cyclone forecasts to make decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This goal measures the difference between the projected and actual location of the center of tropical cyclones in nautical miles (nm) for the Atlantic Basin, averaged over all the 48-hour forecasts occurring during the calendar year.

* Annual Hurricane Season begins June 1 and ends November 30. The final values are produced after a verification and validation period.

Because tropical cyclones are relatively rare events, this measure can show significant annual volatility. Projecting the long-term trend, and basing out-year goals on that trend, is preferred over making large upward or downward changes to the targets each year.

Precipitation forecasts and other foundational general weather guidance developed by the Weather Prediction Center are used extensively by the weather enterprise. This performance measure tracks the ability of the weather forecasters of NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to predict accurately the occurrence of one inch or more of precipitation (rain or the water equivalent of melted snow or ice pellets) twenty-four hours in advance across the contiguous U.S.

This information is used by government entities, economic sectors, and the general public to manage daily lives and activities and make resource decisions.

Ensures that NOAA provides real time (or near real time) availability of critical satellite data and products without gaps to users (NWS and other NOAA line offices, US military and operational partners). On time data and imagery provided increases timeliness and accuracy of public warnings and forecasts of climate and weather events.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States. The false alarm ratio (FAR) is the percentage of times a tornado warning was issued, but no tornado occurrence was verified. Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

*Please also note that a FAR is the number of false alarms per the total number of warnings. If an FAR actual is higher than the target, then the target has not been met. If the actual is the same number or less, then it has been met or exceeded.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended (outlooks out to 14 days) and long range (monthly and seasonal outlooks) temperature and precipitation outlooks exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). Due to the scarcity of long range outlooks (six per month), scores are smoothed over a three year period. To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended (outlooks out to 14 days) and long range (monthly and seasonal outlooks) temperature and precipitation outlooks exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). Due to the scarcity of long range outlooks (six per month), scores are smoothed over a three year period. To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.