Reducing bias in OAR’s Earth System Model is an indicator of the improved skill of precipitation simulation. Bias is defined as the long-term mean (or average over time) difference between a simulated (model generated) value and the observed value. This performance measure will track the reduction in bias (e.g., percent reduction of the current FY21 bias) in U.S. seasonal precipitation simulations in OAR Earth System models based on a percentage of bias in past Earth System models.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States.

Lead Time (LT) for a Tornado Warning is the difference between the time the warning was issued and the time the tornado occurred (based on certified reports) in minutes, assuming the tornado tracked within the bounds of the warned area. Lead Times for all tornado occurrences within the U.S. are averaged to get this statistic for a given fiscal year. This average includes all warned events with zero lead times and all unwarned events.

Lead Time is calculated down to the minute for individual Tornado Warnings and tornadic events. Although the timing of the warning transmission is recorded to the nearest second, typically there is only an estimate to the nearest minute of when a tornado touches down. Additionally, even though we can compute the average tornado warning lead time to a precision of 30 second increments or less, the reporting of this value implies greater accuracy in the data based on scientific and logistical restrictions on tornado reporting and surveying. Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

Temperature outlooks are used by sectors of the U.S. economy, such as energy, agriculture, transportation, etc. as one factor in resource decision making. Temperature outlooks are reported as the probability of temperature being above normal or below normal or, where no definite guidance can be provided, equal chances. This is the cumulative skill calculated for regions where predictions are made.

A winter storm warning provides NOAA customers and partners advanced notice of a hazardous winter weather event that endangers life or property or provides an impediment to commerce. Winter storm warnings are issued for winter weather phenomena like blizzards, ice storms, heavy sleet, and heavy snow. This performance indicator measures the accuracy of winter storm events. Improving the accuracy and advance warnings of winter storms enables the public to take the necessary steps to prepare for disruptive winter weather conditions.

Proposed new indicator for FY 2022. Measure is under development.

The Arctic is a vast, remote region that is critical to the United States economy, weather and sea ice forecasting, our understanding of ecosystem health (including marine mammals and fisheries), and our understanding of climate change. Due to the presence of low temperatures, harsh sea conditions, limited telecommunications infrastructure, and sea ice, maintaining a network of sea ice buoys, Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observers, and Bering & Chukchi moorings is difficult, necessitating constant deployment of a combination of expendable technologies and retrieval and redeployment of a large network of moorings in the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

This measure tracks success in translating research findings into useful tools, technologies and information services that improve the use and management of coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes ecosystems. This measure communicates the number of Sea Grant products (e.g., planning and mapping tools, sensors, observation tools, genetic markers, decision-support tools, or data-sharing websites) that address the management of land, water and living resources in coastal areas resulting from Sea Grant activities (whether research, extension, education or communications) and used by partners or customers. The data will be collected from the Sea Grant Network-wide database; only previously unreported tools, technologies and information services will be included in the annual number.

Improve the accuracy and specificity of extreme rainfall forecasts as measured by the Threat Score of the 2” threshold, made 3 days in advance. Given this score is sensitive to the type of rainfall events experienced, and varies by year, we are adopting a 3 year running average. For FY22 and FY23, we are targeting roughly a 25% overlap between the forecast and observed area (0.14). For comparison, a Threat Score of 0 represents no overlap between forecast & observed location and a Threat Score of 1 represents complete overlap between forecast & observed location. The formula for calculating the Threat Score is = Overlap / (Forecast + Observed - Overlap).

Volunteers are a critical part of national marine sanctuaries and help support science, education, and conservation priorities. Volunteers assist in many projects, such as citizen science, monitoring, education support, and marine debris cleanups. Volunteer hours can also be assigned a value through the widely used nonprofit organization, Independent Sector, which provides a yearly estimate of what a volunteer hour is worth. Using this number, each year ONMS calculates how much in-kind support our volunteers provide.