This measures the number of Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs) executed. A CRADA is a written agreement between a private company and NOAA to work together on a project. A CRADA allows NOAA and non-Federal partners to optimize their resources, share technical expertise in a protected environment, share intellectual property emerging from the effort, and speed the commercialization of NOAA developed technology. The CRADA, which is not an acquisition or procurement vehicle, is designed to be a relatively easy mechanism to implement, requiring less time and effort to initiate than previous methods for working with non-government organizations.

This performance measure tracks the ability of forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction (SWPC) to accurately predict geomagnetic storms, which potentially disrupt power systems, spacecraft operations, and navigation systems. The NOAA geomagnetic storm scale (G-scale) ranges from the G1 or minor level where weak power grid fluctuations can occur to the G5 or extreme level. During a G5 event, where aurora may be visible over most of the United States, the power grid can experience equipment damage causing system collapse or blackout; significant satellite damage can occur; and global positioning systems may be inaccurate or temporarily unavailable. Geomagnetic Storm Forecast Accuracy is a percentage that reflects the amount of time that the SWPC geomagnetic storm forecast is correct over a 24-hour period. The 24 hour geomagnetic storm forecast is considered accurate if a G1 or greater storm event was correctly predicted. This calculation also includes geomagnetic storms which were not forecast. This measure is verified based on ground-based magnetometer observations. This measure is averaged over the 60 most recent geomagnetic storms to maintain statistical significance.

Precipitation forecasts and other foundational general weather guidance developed by the Weather Prediction Center are used extensively by the weather enterprise. This performance measure tracks the ability of the weather forecasters of NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to predict accurately the occurrence of one inch or more of precipitation (rain or the water equivalent of melted snow or ice pellets) twenty-four hours in advance across the contiguous U.S. This information is used by government entities, economic sectors, and the general public to manage daily lives and activities and make resource decisions.

The measure captures the count of significant and discrete OAR research and development products that have transitioned to development, demonstration, or an application. Products include transitions occurring within OAR and applying group(s) outside of OAR. This includes research, development, and demonstration performed and supported by OAR as well as utilization of OAR R&D products by external parties.

The lower this measure is the better, so being below the target is exceeded and above the target is not met. Visibility and cloud ceiling forecasts are critical for aircraft safety and efficient operations. When visibility or cloud ceilings are low, pilots rely on instruments to navigate instead of visual reconnaissance. The Federal Aviation Administration establishes Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) thresholds—visibility less than three statute miles and/or cloud ceilings at, or below, 1000 feet—for safety. NWS assesses the quality of IFR threshold forecasts in response to these requirements. Fundamental statistical metrics, specifically Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR), are used to track IFR forecast performance. Probability of Detection (POD), also known as Accuracy, is a ratio that describes the number of times IFR is correctly forecasted compared to the total number of IFR occurrences. FAR is a ratio that describes the number of IFR forecasts when IFR was not observed compared to the total number of forecast attempts. These two metrics must always be used in conjunction, as one can be improved at the expense of the other. Greater accuracy and a minimized FAR result in safer flights and fewer flight delays; conversely, poorer accuracy and an increased FAR result in a greater incidence of unnecessary flight delays.

*Please also note that a FAR is is the number of false alarms per the total number of warnings. So if a FAR actual is higher than the target, then the target has not been met. If the actual is the same number or less, then it has been met or exceeded.

The public, private sectors, emergency managers, and government institutions at all levels in this country and abroad use NOAA tropical cyclone forecasts to make decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This goal measures the difference between the projected and actual location of the center of tropical cyclones in nautical miles (nm) for the Atlantic Basin, averaged over all the 48- hour forecasts occurring during the calendar year (CY). * Data for a given CY are not available until April of the following CY.

Weather information users are surveyed continuously by means of a web-based, pop-up survey on NWS web pages throughout the Nation. A sample size of approximately 6,000 responses is collected quarterly for a maximum of 24,000 annual responses. The Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) score is calculated as a weighted average of three survey questions that measure different facets of satisfaction with NWS services. American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) researchers use proprietary software technology to estimate the weighting. The three questions include the overall satisfaction of NWS services, expectations of service, and a comparison to an ideal organization. Indexes are reported on a 0 to 100 scale. The CSI was started in the United States in 1994 by researchers at the University of Michigan, in conjunction with the American Society for Quality in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and CFI Group in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The Index was developed to provide information on satisfaction with the quality of products and services available to consumers. The survey data serve as inputs to an econometric model that benchmarks customer satisfaction with more than 300 companies in 43 industries and 10 economic sectors, as well as various services of federal and local government agencies.

The public, private sectors, emergency managers, and government institutions at all levels in this country and abroad use NOAA tropical cyclone forecasts to make decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This measure represents the difference between the projected intensity of these storms and the actual intensity in knots (kt) for Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones (i.e., tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes).

The measure is a proxy for the useful forecast lead time of the GFS beyond the current forecasts skill and is computed as a three-year moving average over the range of forecast days into the future. It is defined as the day (including fractional day) that the value drops below 0.6 in the deterministic GFS forecast. Dropping below 0.6 indicates the point at which a forecast loses useful skill. Extending lead time in prediction of future weather events allows people to make informed choices and enables protection of life, property, and enhancement of the National economy. Target is measured in days.

Visibility and cloud ceiling forecasts are critical for aircraft safety and efficient operations. When visibility or cloud ceilings are low, pilots rely on instruments to navigate instead of visual reconnaissance. The Federal Aviation Administration establishes Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) thresholds—visibility less than three statute miles and/or cloud ceilings at, or below, 1000 feet—for safety. NWS assesses the quality of IFR threshold forecasts in response to these requirements. Fundamental statistical metrics, specifically Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR), are used to track IFR forecast performance. Probability of Detection (POD), also known as Accuracy, is a ratio that describes the number of times IFR is correctly forecasted compared to the total number of IFR occurrences. FAR is a ratio that describes the number of IFR forecasts when IFR was not observed compared to the total number of forecast attempts. These two metrics must always be used in conjunction, as one can be improved at the expense of the other. Greater accuracy and a minimized FAR result in safer flights and fewer flight delays; conversely, poorer accuracy and an increased FAR result in a greater incidence of unnecessary flight delays.