For each reported flash flood event, the flash flood warning lead-time is the difference in minutes between the issuance of a flash flood warning and the onset of a geographically corresponding flash flood event. The lead times for all flash flood events, within the United States and territories served by the National Weather Service, are averaged to calculate the national average flash flood warning lead-time metric for a given fiscal year. This average includes all warned events with zero lead times and all unwarned events.

Historically, flash flood warnings were issued and verified on a countywide basis. Starting in FY 2010, the storm-based warnings were implemented with verification based solely for the areas impacted by the warning and event.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended (outlooks out to 14 days) and long range (monthly and seasonal outlooks) temperature and precipitation outlooks exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). Due to the scarcity of long range outlooks (six per month), scores are smoothed over a three year period. To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center long range temperature and precipitation outlooks (monthly and seasonal outlooks) exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). Due to the scarcity of long-range outlooks (six per month), scores are smoothed over a three-year period. To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended range temperature and precipitation outlooks (outlooks out to 14 days) exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Key activities for fleet modernization and products are identified and tracked using a project management system. NOAA is currently using an IAA with the Navy for the first two General Purpose Oceanographic Ships under the Ship Recapitalization program. Key program milestones are used as the indicator for tracking acquisition progress. The next recapitalization ship is a Class B to conduct charting and surveys missions. This class will have its own key acquisition milestones.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended (outlooks out to 14 days) and long range (monthly and seasonal outlooks) temperature and precipitation outlooks exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). Due to the scarcity of long range outlooks (six per month), scores are smoothed over a three year period. To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Temperature outlooks are used by sectors of the U.S. economy, such as energy, agriculture, transportation, etc. as one factor in resource decision making. Temperature outlooks are reported as the probability of temperature being above normal or below normal or, where no definite guidance can be provided, equal chances. This is the cumulative skill calculated for regions where predictions are made.

Days-At-Sea (DAS) is the unit used to annually plan mission time aboard NOAA ships. Approximately 100 survey and research missions are planned and executed each year. A DAS is a day is which the ship is underway, under its own power, for greater than one hour, conducting mission operations, training, sea trials, or calibration. Also included are days in which hydrographic ships are not underway but are conducting operations aboard one or more ship-based launches.

This measures the accuracy of wave height forecasts, which are important for marine commerce. Accuracy is defined in terms of error. For the Day 1 wave height forecast, errors less than 2 feet are defined as accurate. Since FY 2014, a higher threshold of forecast errors has been used to define correct forecasts whenever higher waves have occurred. Hence, all wave height forecasts with errors less than (4 feet, 6 feet) are accurate forecasts when the observed wave height equals or exceeds (10 feet, 20 feet) respectively. This measure uses complex skill scores to analyze individual wave height components.

For the Day 1 wave height forecast, errors less than 2 feet are defined as accurate. Since FY 2014, a higher threshold of forecast errors has been used to define correct forecasts whenever higher waves have occurred. Hence, all wave height forecasts with errors less than (4 feet, 6 feet) are accurate forecasts when the observed wave height equals or exceeds (10 feet, 20 feet) respectively.

This measure uses complex skill scores to analyze individual wave height components.

The flash flood warning accuracy (probability of detection for storm-based warnings) represents the percentage, in both space and time, for which a flash flood event was warned. Historically, flash flood warnings were issued and verified on a countywide basis. Starting in FY 2010, the storm-based warnings were implemented with verification based solely for the areas impacted by the warning and event.