This measures the accuracy of wind speed forecasts, which are important for marine commerce. Accuracy is defined in terms of error. Legacy statistics are available from FY 1994 through FY 2012. New marine verification program began FY 2013. Beginning in FY 2013, Wind and Wave verification extended out to 5 and 7 days respectively, while the legacy program was limited to verifying Day 1 with errors less than 5 knots are defined as accurate. Since FY 2014, a higher threshold of forecast errors has been used to define correct forecasts whenever higher wind speeds have occurred. Hence, wind speed forecasts with errors less than (7 knots, 10 knots, 15 knots) are accurate forecasts when the observed wind speed equals or exceeds (20 knots, 34 knots, 48 knots) respectively. This measure uses complex skill scores to analyze individual wind speed components.

Legacy statistics are available from FY 1994 through FY 2012. New marine verification program began FY 2013. Beginning in FY 2013, Wind and Wave verification extended out to 5 and 7 days respectively, while the legacy program was limited to verifying Day 1 with errors less than 5 knots are defined as accurate.

Since FY 2014, a higher threshold of forecast errors has been used to define correct forecasts whenever higher wind speeds have occurred. Hence, wind speed forecasts with errors less than (7 knots, 10 knots, 15 knots) are accurate forecasts when the observed wind speed equals or exceeds (20 knots, 34 knots, 48 knots) respectively.

This measure uses complex skill scores to analyze individual wind speed components.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States. The false alarm ratio (FAR) is the percentage of times a tornado warning was issued, but no tornado occurrence was verified. Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

*Please also note that a FAR is the number of false alarms per the total number of warnings. If an FAR actual is higher than the target, then the target has not been met. If the actual is the same number or less, then it has been met or exceeded.

Reducing bias in OAR’s Earth System Model is an indicator of the improved skill of precipitation simulation. Bias is defined as the long-term mean (or average over time) difference between a simulated (model generated) value and the observed value. This performance measure will track the reduction in bias (e.g., percent reduction of the current FY21 bias) in U.S. seasonal precipitation simulations in OAR Earth System models based on a percentage of bias in past Earth System models.

The public, private sectors, emergency managers, and government institutions at all levels in this country and abroad use NOAA tropical cyclone forecasts to make decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This goal measures the difference between the projected and actual location of the center of tropical cyclones in nautical miles (nm) for the Atlantic Basin, averaged over all the 48-hour forecasts occurring during the calendar year.

* Annual Hurricane Season begins June 1 and ends November 30. The final values are produced after a verification and validation period.

Because tropical cyclones are relatively rare events, this measure can show significant annual volatility. Projecting the long-term trend, and basing out-year goals on that trend, is preferred over making large upward or downward changes to the targets each year.

Ensures that NOAA provides real time (or near real time) availability of critical satellite data and products without gaps to users (NWS and other NOAA line offices, US military and operational partners). On time data and imagery provided increases timeliness and accuracy of public warnings and forecasts of climate and weather events.

Precipitation forecasts and other foundational general weather guidance developed by the Weather Prediction Center are used extensively by the weather enterprise. This performance measure tracks the ability of the weather forecasters of NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to predict accurately the occurrence of one inch or more of precipitation (rain or the water equivalent of melted snow or ice pellets) twenty-four hours in advance across the contiguous U.S.

This information is used by government entities, economic sectors, and the general public to manage daily lives and activities and make resource decisions.

This performance measure tracks the ability of forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction (SWPC) to accurately predict geomagnetic storms, which potentially disrupt power systems, spacecraft operations, and navigation systems. The NOAA geomagnetic storm scale (G-scale) ranges from the G1 or minor level where weak power grid fluctuations can occur to the G5 or extreme level.

During a G5 event, where aurora may be visible over most of the United States, the power grid can experience equipment damage causing system collapse or blackout; significant satellite damage can occur; and global positioning systems may be inaccurate or temporarily unavailable.

Geomagnetic Storm Forecast Accuracy is a percentage that reflects the amount of time that the SWPC geomagnetic storm forecast is correct over a 24-hour period. The 24 hour geomagnetic storm forecast is considered accurate if a G1 or greater storm event was correctly predicted. This calculation also includes geomagnetic storms which were not forecast. This measure is verified based on ground-based magnetometer observations. This measure is averaged over the 60 most recent geomagnetic storms to maintain statistical significance.

Key activities for the development and launch of weather satellites and products are identified and tracked using a project management system.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended (outlooks out to 14 days) and long range (monthly and seasonal outlooks) temperature and precipitation outlooks exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). Due to the scarcity of long range outlooks (six per month), scores are smoothed over a three year period. To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.

Metric calculated as the percent of Climate Prediction Center extended range temperature and precipitation outlooks (outlooks out to 14 days) exceeding Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 10 (10% better than a climatological forecast). To better track results, three individual metrics are tracked – 1) All forecasts combined, 2) Temperature only, and 3) Precipitation only.