This measure tracks success in translating research findings into useful tools, technologies and information services that improve the use and management of coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes ecosystems. This measure communicates the number of Sea Grant products (e.g., planning and mapping tools, sensors, observation tools, genetic markers, decision-support tools, or data-sharing websites) that address the management of land, water and living resources in coastal areas resulting from Sea Grant activities (whether research, extension, education or communications) and used by partners or customers. The data will be collected from the Sea Grant Network-wide database; only previously unreported tools, technologies and information services will be included in the annual number.

Improve the accuracy and specificity of extreme rainfall forecasts as measured by the Threat Score of the 2” threshold, made 3 days in advance. Given this score is sensitive to the type of rainfall events experienced, and varies by year, we are adopting a 3 year running average. For FY22 and FY23, we are targeting roughly a 25% overlap between the forecast and observed area (0.14). For comparison, a Threat Score of 0 represents no overlap between forecast & observed location and a Threat Score of 1 represents complete overlap between forecast & observed location. The formula for calculating the Threat Score is = Overlap / (Forecast + Observed - Overlap).

NOAA is consolidating activities for the NAVSTA Newport, RI location. Currently NOAA has two ships homeported at NAVSTA, the Henry B. Bigelow and Okeanos Explorer. In order to remain in compliance with the CENOTE Act, NOAA is required to co-locate with the Navy whenever possible to increase technological sharing capabilities. This consolidation aligns with NOAA's regional facilities plans. The OMAO consolidation has milestones to complete design (FY22), and then FY23 issuance of an RFP and award of the contract.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States.

Lead Time (LT) for a Tornado Warning is the difference between the time the warning was issued and the time the tornado occurred (based on certified reports) in minutes, assuming the tornado tracked within the bounds of the warned area. Lead Times for all tornado occurrences within the U.S. are averaged to get this statistic for a given fiscal year. This average includes all warned events with zero lead times and all unwarned events.

Lead Time is calculated down to the minute for individual Tornado Warnings and tornadic events. Although the timing of the warning transmission is recorded to the nearest second, typically there is only an estimate to the nearest minute of when a tornado touches down. Additionally, even though we can compute the average tornado warning lead time to a precision of 30 second increments or less, the reporting of this value implies greater accuracy in the data based on scientific and logistical restrictions on tornado reporting and surveying. Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

Reducing bias in OAR’s Earth System Model is an indicator of the improved skill of precipitation simulation. Bias is defined as the long-term mean (or average over time) difference between a simulated (model generated) value and the observed value. This performance measure will track the reduction in bias (e.g., percent reduction of the current FY21 bias) in U.S. seasonal precipitation simulations in OAR Earth System models based on a percentage of bias in past Earth System models.

The Arctic is a vast, remote region that is critical to the United States economy, weather and sea ice forecasting, our understanding of ecosystem health (including marine mammals and fisheries), and our understanding of climate change. Due to the presence of low temperatures, harsh sea conditions, limited telecommunications infrastructure, and sea ice, maintaining a network of sea ice buoys, Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observers, and Bering & Chukchi moorings is difficult, necessitating constant deployment of a combination of expendable technologies and retrieval and redeployment of a large network of moorings in the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States.

Accuracy or probability of detection (POD) is the percentage of time a tornado actually occurred in an area that was covered by a tornado warning. The difference between the accuracy percentage figure and 100% represents the percentage of events occurring without warning.

Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

The measure is a proxy for the useful forecast lead time of the GFS beyond the current forecasts skill and is computed as a three-year moving average over the range of forecast days into the future. It is defined as the day (including fractional day) that the value drops below 0.6 in the deterministic GFS forecast. Dropping below 0.6 indicates the point at which a forecast loses useful skill. Extending lead time in prediction of future weather events allows people to make informed choices and enables protection of life, property, and enhancement of the National economy. Target is measured in days.

Improve the accuracy and specificity of extreme rainfall forecasts as measured by the Threat Score of the 2” threshold, made 3 days in advance. Given this score is sensitive to the type of rainfall events experienced, and varies by year, we are adopting a 3 year running average. For FY22 and FY23, we are targeting roughly a 25% overlap between the forecast and observed area (0.14). For comparison, a Threat Score of 0 represents no overlap between forecast & observed location and a Threat Score of 1 represents complete overlap between forecast & observed location. The formula for calculating the Threat Score is = Overlap / (Forecast + Observed - Overlap).

Volunteers are a critical part of national marine sanctuaries and help support science, education, and conservation priorities. Volunteers assist in many projects, such as citizen science, monitoring, education support, and marine debris cleanups. Volunteer hours can also be assigned a value through the widely used nonprofit organization, Independent Sector, which provides a yearly estimate of what a volunteer hour is worth. Using this number, each year ONMS calculates how much in-kind support our volunteers provide.