The Arctic is a vast, remote region that is critical to the United States economy, weather and sea ice forecasting, our understanding of ecosystem health (including marine mammals and fisheries), and our understanding of climate change. Due to the presence of low temperatures, harsh sea conditions, limited telecommunications infrastructure, and sea ice, maintaining a network of sea ice buoys, Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observers, and Bering & Chukchi moorings is difficult, necessitating constant deployment of a combination of expendable technologies and retrieval and redeployment of a large network of moorings in the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

Reducing bias in OAR’s Earth System Model is an indicator of the improved skill of precipitation simulation. Bias is defined as the long-term mean (or average over time) difference between a simulated (model generated) value and the observed value. This performance measure will track the reduction in bias (e.g., percent reduction of the current FY21 bias) in U.S. seasonal precipitation simulations in OAR Earth System models based on a percentage of bias in past Earth System models.

This measure gaugues the success of the Seafood Import Monitoring Program (SIMP) by tracking the percentage of permit holders audited who were responsive and had complete chain of custody records.

Improve the accuracy and specificity of extreme rainfall forecasts as measured by the Threat Score of the 2” threshold, made 3 days in advance. Given this score is sensitive to the type of rainfall events experienced, and varies by year, we are adopting a 3 year running average. For FY22 and FY23, we are targeting roughly a 25% overlap between the forecast and observed area (0.14). For comparison, a Threat Score of 0 represents no overlap between forecast & observed location and a Threat Score of 1 represents complete overlap between forecast & observed location. The formula for calculating the Threat Score is = Overlap / (Forecast + Observed - Overlap).

This measure tracks progress toward the recovery of endangered, threatened, or depleted protected species under NMFS’ jurisdiction. The species included in this measure are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) or as depleted under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). Decreases may occur when species are de-listed or when separate stocks of a listed species are merged. Recovery of threatened, endangered, or depleted species can take decades. It may not be possible to recover or de-list a species in the near term, but progress can be made to stabilize or increase the species population. For some species, this means trying to stop steep population declines, while for others it means trying to increase their numbers.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States.

Lead Time (LT) for a Tornado Warning is the difference between the time the warning was issued and the time the tornado occurred (based on certified reports) in minutes, assuming the tornado tracked within the bounds of the warned area. Lead Times for all tornado occurrences within the U.S. are averaged to get this statistic for a given fiscal year. This average includes all warned events with zero lead times and all unwarned events.

Lead Time is calculated down to the minute for individual Tornado Warnings and tornadic events. Although the timing of the warning transmission is recorded to the nearest second, typically there is only an estimate to the nearest minute of when a tornado touches down. Additionally, even though we can compute the average tornado warning lead time to a precision of 30 second increments or less, the reporting of this value implies greater accuracy in the data based on scientific and logistical restrictions on tornado reporting and surveying. Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

Tornado Warnings are issued to enable the public to get out of harm’s way and mitigate preventable loss. NWS forecasters issue approximately 2,900 Tornado Warnings per year, primarily between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains. Tornado Warning statistics are based on a comparison of warnings issued and weather spotter observations of tornadoes and/or storm damage surveys from Weather Forecast Offices in the United States.

Accuracy or probability of detection (POD) is the percentage of time a tornado actually occurred in an area that was covered by a tornado warning. The difference between the accuracy percentage figure and 100% represents the percentage of events occurring without warning.

Most tornadoes cannot be visually tracked from beginning to end and post-storm damage surveying is the official method with which the NWS categorizes tornado characteristics (intensity, path length & width) but must rely on radar data to estimate the timing of the tornado track.

This measures establishes customized assessment targets for every managed fish stock and gauges success in meeting those targets. Using this approach, NMFS can more accurately measure incremental progress of its national stock assessment enterprise and the degree to which we are meeting NOAA’s fish assessment needs. This measure will eventually be replacing Adequate Assessments for Fish Stocks.

The measure is a proxy for the useful forecast lead time of the GFS beyond the current forecasts skill and is computed as a three-year moving average over the range of forecast days into the future. It is defined as the day (including fractional day) that the value drops below 0.6 in the deterministic GFS forecast. Dropping below 0.6 indicates the point at which a forecast loses useful skill. Extending lead time in prediction of future weather events allows people to make informed choices and enables protection of life, property, and enhancement of the National economy. Target is measured in days.