Improve the accuracy and specificity of extreme rainfall forecasts as measured by the Threat Score of the 2” threshold, made 3 days in advance. Given this score is sensitive to the type of rainfall events experienced, and varies by year, we are adopting a 3 year running average. For FY22 and FY23, we are targeting roughly a 25% overlap between the forecast and observed area (0.14). For comparison, a Threat Score of 0 represents no overlap between forecast & observed location and a Threat Score of 1 represents complete overlap between forecast & observed location. The formula for calculating the Threat Score is = Overlap / (Forecast + Observed - Overlap).